Global stainless steel production is expected to reach 56.5 million tons in 2021

MEPS raised the growth expectation of global stainless steel crude steel production in 2021. It is expected that the global stainless steel crude steel production in 2021 will increase by 11% year-on-year to 56.5 million tons. Indonesia's output growth in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and China's strong growth supported supply expectations.

In the first quarter, Indonesia's stainless steel production reached 1.03 million tons, a record high. In the first quarter, Indonesia's shipments to Europe increased significantly. In May, Europe began to impose anti-dumping duties on Indonesian cold-rolled stainless steel coils that have arrived in Hong Kong.

India's stainless steel output is expected to be 3.9 million tons this year. In the first quarter, strong industrial demand in Europe drove export sales. However, with Indonesia actively promoting investment in new production capacity, the output scale will be close to India, and India's position as the world's second largest stainless steel producer will not be guaranteed.

It is expected that China's stainless steel production will increase to 31.9 million tons. The production restriction policy of the iron and steel industry has a limited impact on stainless steel production in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the government took measures to curb exports, so as to achieve the goal of reducing production.

The output of stainless steel in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan is expected to exceed that of last year. The impact of the fire in Yelian Kaohsiung plant in Taiwan is uncertain. It is expected that the output of stainless steel in Taiwan may be lower than that before the epidemic this year.

European stainless steel production is expected to achieve double-digit growth to 6.95 million tons. Affected by the weather, the output will decline in the third quarter. The flood in northern Europe has caused damage to steel production and logistics transportation. It is expected to recover gradually in the fourth quarter.

Us stainless steel production is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year to 2.46 million tons. Although the capacity utilization rate of the steel plant has exceeded 80% since the end of May, it is still unable to meet the strong domestic demand.

Despite the growth of global production, there are varying degrees of supply shortages in most markets. Due to the economic stimulus plan and positive expectations in the post epidemic era, the global end-user consumption is in good condition. Low inventory levels exacerbated supply tensions. Therefore, in the medium term, prices may face continuous upward pressure.